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BTB model in the badger - different vaccination strategies
Journal
Journal of Applied Ecology
Volume 41 Issue 3,Pages492-501 Published Online: 18May2004
Authors
D. WILKINSON , G. C. SMITH , R. J. DELAHAY and C. L.
CHEESEMAN Central Science Laboratory, Sand Hutton, York YO41 1LZ, UK
Correspondence: D. Wilkinson, Central Science Laboratory, Sand Hutton,
York YO41 1LZ, UK (fax+; 44 1904 462111; e-mail
d.wilkinson@csl.gov.uk).
Abstract
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In recent years bovine tuberculosis (TB) incidence
in cattle has been increasing in south-west England. The European
badger Meles meles is implicated in the transmission of TB to cattle
and has been the subject of culling operations in an attempt to
control the disease.
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An individual-based, spatial, stochastic,
simulation model was used to investigate the control of TB in the
badger by various badger-vaccination strategies. Nearly all population
and epidemiological parameters were derived from a single long-term
study site. Heterogeneous carrying capacities (the maximum number of
breeding females per badger social group) and different sized badger
territories were used to simulate natural heterogeneity. The model
included the transmission of TB from badgers to cattle to allow
reactive vaccination of badgers, i.e. in response to positive cattle
TB test results.
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The model predicted that badger populations with
reduced contiguity (e.g. natural barriers) between social group
territories would have a lower TB prevalence.
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In the absence of information on the true
prevalence of TB in badger social groups, vaccinating 80% of groups at
a low vaccine probability (10% successfully immunized) was more
effective in the model at reducing prevalence of TB in badgers, than
vaccinating 10% of the groups at a higher probability (80%
successfully immunized).
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Although a lower cost option, vaccinating badgers
purely in reaction to cattle herd infections took longer to reduce
badger TB prevalence to 50% than proactive strategies (7–20years
compared with 3–5years). Simulations suggested that at least 40% of
healthy badgers need to be immunized each year to eradicate TB in the
badger. The model indicated that vaccination of badgers is a viable
alternative to badger culling for the control of TB in cattle.
Combined control policies were not investigated.
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Synthesis and applications. Widespread proactive
vaccination appears to be the most effective strategy for disease
control. Initial proactive vaccination followed by localized reactive
vaccination can lead to a greater reduction in disease prevalence for
less effort. This is likely to be a global finding for the control of
wildlife diseases, although the optimal duration for a proactive
campaign will depend upon specific circumstances (e.g. detection rate
of disease).
Keywords
cattle • Mycobacterium bovis • spatial model • TB
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