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Detection of a local bTB reservoir using cattle surveillance data
Journal
Transboundary and Emerging Diseases - First published:
31 July 2021
https://doi.org/10.1111/tbed.14272
Authors
Sara H. Downs, Stuart
Ashfield, Mark
Arnold, Tony
Roberts, Alison
Prosser, Andy
Robertson, Susanne
Frost, Kate
Harris, Rachelle
Avigad, Graham
C. Smith
Abstract
The incidence of bovine tuberculosis (TB, caused by
Mycobacterium bovis) in cattle has been associated with TB in badgers
(Meles meles) in parts of England. The aim was to identify
badger-associated M. bovis reservoirs in the Edge Area, between the High-
and Low-Risk Areas for cattle TB. Data from badger TB surveys were sparse.
Therefore, a definition for a local M. bovis reservoir potentially shared
by cattle and badgers was developed using cattle TB surveillance data. The
performance of the definition was estimated through Latent Class Analysis
using badger TB survey data. Spatial units (25 km2) in the Edge Area were
classified as having a reservoir if they had (i) at least one TB incident
in at least three of the previous 7 years, (ii) at least one TB incident
in a cattle herd confirmed by post-mortem tests as due to M. bovis
infection and not attributable to cattle movements in the previous 2 years
and (iii) more confirmed TB incidents than un-confirmed in the previous 2
years. Approximately 20% of the Edge Area was classified as having a local
M. bovis reservoir using the cattle-based definition. Assuming 15% TB
prevalence in Edge Area badgers, sensitivity for the local M. bovis
reservoir definition varied from 25.7% [95% credible interval (CrI):
10.7%–85.1%] to 64.8% (95% CrI: 48.1%–88.0%). Specificity was 91.9% (CrI:
83.6%–97.4%). Over 90% of the local reservoir was in stable endemic TB
areas identified through previous work and its spatial distribution was
largely consistent with local veterinary knowledge. Uncertainty in the
reservoir spatial distribution was explored through its recalculation in
spatial units shifted in different directions. We recommend that the
definition is re-evaluated as further data on badger infection with M.
bovis become available.
Keywords
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